tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264226589944705290.post2153098903100080946..comments2023-11-05T03:45:25.001-08:00Comments on God Plays Dice: Why don't sports teams use randomization?Michael Lugohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15671307315028242949noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264226589944705290.post-68905616735657690052007-12-13T11:07:00.000-08:002007-12-13T11:07:00.000-08:00We're talking about "sports teams". People who ref...We're talking about "sports teams". People who refused statistical evidence that showed that there was no such thing as a hot hand.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264226589944705290.post-75197721778057347952007-12-13T11:02:00.000-08:002007-12-13T11:02:00.000-08:00It seems to me that players do use randomized stra...It seems to me that players do use randomized strategies, but not in the simplistic sense of random (or quasi-random) number generation.<BR/><BR/>A better description of the players' strategy would be, as already implied in the previous comment, some sort of a highly-structured stochastic model (say, a Bayesian network) where there is substantial randomness but also significant bits of prior information that makes sure that a particular players weaknesses are suitably exploited and nonsensical maneuvers do not appear in crucial situations.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264226589944705290.post-21771593630815019982007-12-11T17:26:00.000-08:002007-12-11T17:26:00.000-08:00a pitcher has 3 pitches (curve, chageup,fastball),...a pitcher has 3 pitches (curve, chageup,fastball), a batter comes up to the plate and can't hit sliders and changeups... guess which one you throw?<BR/><BR/>defensive line (in football) is weak on one side of the field (starter just got off injury list), what side do you put pressure on? <BR/><BR/>Randomness wouldn't make sense then. Every team has a weakness/strength that needs to be exploited/avoided. Randomness would be silly if the pitcher was told to throw a slider he can't throw.<BR/><BR/>In the long run randomness might work, but that's if everything the randomness is controlling is done perfectly. If you can't throw a slider, and the computer tells you to, it wont slide and it turns into a home run.<BR/><BR/>Math example: <BR/>I think winning at a game where you have a row of coins, an even number of coins, and you alternate picking one up with another person. the person starting can always win by choosing even or odd (whichever set is more valuable) and only picking those up. <B>But</B> you can get a better score by alternating your strategy and picking up the most valuable coins along the way.<BR/><BR/>I see that is what sports are doing...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264226589944705290.post-32171098551024394412007-12-11T12:57:00.000-08:002007-12-11T12:57:00.000-08:00my sense is that there's an intuituve understandin...my sense is that there's an intuituve understanding of randomized equilibria among the players. Namely, pitchers and batters (to take one example) know intuitively that they need to be unpredictable (not technically the same as random, but functionally equivalent) in order to get an edge. <BR/><BR/>Similarly for basketball players (should I drive left or right to the basket, etc). <BR/><BR/>This might not be codified at the level of strategy, which is what you're asking about I think, but it does play a role in mano-e-mano strategizing.Suresh Venkatasubramanianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15898357513326041822noreply@blogger.com