tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264226589944705290.post2904529272921433843..comments2023-11-05T03:45:25.001-08:00Comments on God Plays Dice: Bloomberg as a kingmaker?Michael Lugohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15671307315028242949noreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264226589944705290.post-88212571484579877132007-06-24T13:41:00.000-07:002007-06-24T13:41:00.000-07:00If you assume that one-third of states are reliabl...If you assume that one-third of states are reliably Republican, one-third are reliably Democratic, and one-third are up for grabs, and that Bloomberg takes New York, and that New York is otherwise reliably Democratic, you can take all 31 New York votes away from the one-third that are reliably Democratic rather than dividing them up between the two parties.<BR/><BR/>Then I think you end up with a 49% chance of a Republican victory, a 13% chance of a Democratic victory, and only a 38% chance of a Bloomberg victory.Lizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18070561798254064806noreply@blogger.com