tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264226589944705290.post5275984954378131165..comments2023-11-05T03:45:25.001-08:00Comments on God Plays Dice: Delegate math in the Pennsylvania primaryMichael Lugohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15671307315028242949noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264226589944705290.post-15905605990422323912008-11-14T21:31:00.000-08:002008-11-14T21:31:00.000-08:00If Clinton wins 56% of the vote in Pennsylvania, s...If Clinton wins 56% of the vote in Pennsylvania, she moves just over the 55.7% viable candidate threshold for a 19-16 at-large delegate victory, but under the 57.5% threshold for a 12-8 victory in PLEO delegates. So, I think the most likely statewide delegate split is actually 30-25 in favor of Clinton. This is the same as Giordano's low-end projection, and different than his 33-22 projection.<BR/>===================<BR/>Thomson<BR/><A HREF="http://www.addictionlink.org/drug-rehab-center/pennsylvania" REL="nofollow">pennsylvania drug rehab</A>thomson2008https://www.blogger.com/profile/07106899778248337699noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264226589944705290.post-22297482049992425922008-04-25T05:58:00.000-07:002008-04-25T05:58:00.000-07:00I have a feeling that in a "winner takes all" cont...I have a feeling that in a "winner takes all" contest, Hillary would have been the nominee by now.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264226589944705290.post-26255768655360649462008-04-24T21:40:00.000-07:002008-04-24T21:40:00.000-07:00A poster on the UsElectionAtlas Forums took a look...A poster on the UsElectionAtlas Forums took a look at this issue nationwide, essentially recalculating what the results would have been if delegates were awarded "at large". <BR/><BR/>The conclusion was that Obama would be 28 delegates further in the lead (a swing of 14 from Clinton to Obama). <BR/><BR/>His post (along with a map of where each candidate gained) is <A HREF="http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=70003.225" REL="nofollow"> here</A>Kevin C.https://www.blogger.com/profile/08760942816103747988noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264226589944705290.post-72713973548520596532008-04-24T06:29:00.000-07:002008-04-24T06:29:00.000-07:00Mathematically, this rounding issue is the differe...Mathematically, this rounding issue is the difference between E(X) and E(rounded X) for a random variable X. If X is evenly distributed between 0 and 1, the two expected values should be the same. But if X has a central tendency, the rounding will exaggerate that central tendency.<BR/><BR/>The other interesting thing is that turnout was anything but stable. The number of voters in this primary far exceeded the usual turnout. I don't know if representation based on typical (rather than actual) turnout favored one candidate or the other, but it certainly had the potential to.Ben Allenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15594823641514744644noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264226589944705290.post-77468100533569052812008-04-23T12:01:00.000-07:002008-04-23T12:01:00.000-07:00Noah,what you're saying is that what I referred to...Noah,<BR/><BR/>what you're saying is that what I referred to as "rounding error" -- which I dismissed as unimportant -- may actually be quite important.<BR/><BR/>You might be right. If I get a chance I'll think about it.Michael Lugohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15671307315028242949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-264226589944705290.post-3399043267610953962008-04-23T10:00:00.000-07:002008-04-23T10:00:00.000-07:00I think you're missing a crucial point here. In d...I think you're missing a crucial point here. In districts with fewer delegates you need a higher margin to pick up any delegates.<BR/><BR/>Suppose you had two districts each with 4 delegates and the same voting patterns in each district. Any outcome between something like 35 and 65 results in an even split.<BR/><BR/>On the other hand suppose there's just one 8 delegate district. Then a much smaller lead (say getting in the high 50s) picks you up a 2 delegate lead.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com