Showing posts with label randomization. Show all posts
Showing posts with label randomization. Show all posts

11 December 2007

Why don't sports teams use randomization?

Why don't sports teams use randomization?, a guest post by Ian Ayres at Freakonomics. It's well-known that the best strategy in a lot of game-theoretic situations is to choose at random what you'll do at each encounter, where the appropriate probabilities can be calculated. (A sports example would be a pitcher choosing what sort of pitch to make, and a batter deciding whether to swing or not.) So why doesn't anybody (so far as we know) use a random number generator to call pitches?

Although this doesn't seem to be brought up in the comments there (at least not yet), I suspect that the reason for this is that sports people are for the most part resistant to change. But more importantly, they have to answer to the media. And when your closer throws a pitch down the middle of the plate and it gets hit out of the park, and you lose, do you really want to explain to the news people that a random number generator told you to do that? There is no other line of work I can think of where it would be quite so obvious which decision led to the bad outcome; more importantly, there is no other line of work with call-in radio shows devoted to dissecting everything that happens.