Since then, the Phillies have won three and lost seven; as of the original post they'd lost 9,991 games all-time, so now they're up to 9,998 losses. They need two more for 10,000.
They play tonight, then again tomorrow, then after that not until Friday (which is when I have tickets). Who knows, I might see it.
Here are the probabilities now:
|Jul 08||@ Rockies||0.257245|
|Jul 13||v. Cardinals||0.197124|
|Jul 14||v. Cardinals||0.157155|
|Jul 15||v. Cardinals||0.118057|
|Jul 16||@ Dodgers||0.126696|
|Jul 17||@ Dodgers||0.071025|
|Jul 18||@ Dodgers||0.037119|
|Jul 19||@ Padres||0.018392|
|Jul 20||@ Padres||0.009024|
|Jul 21||@ Padres||0.004337|
|Jul 22||@ Padres||0.002051|
|Jul 24||v. Nationals||0.000582|
|Jul 25||v. Nationals||0.000392|
|Jul 26||v. Nationals||0.000264|
|Jul 27||v. Pirates||0.000180|
|Jul 28||v. Pirates||0.000120|
|Jul 29||v. Pirates||0.000080|
|Jul 30||@ Cubs||0.000074|
|Jul 31||@ Cubs||0.000039|
|Aug 01||@ Cubs||0.000021|
|Aug 02||@ Cubs||0.000011|
|Aug 03||@ Brewers||0.000007|
|Aug 04||@ Brewers||0.000003|
|Aug 05||@ Brewers||0.000001|
The single most likely game is now tomorrow's game; not surprisingly the Phillies have roughly a one-in-four chance of losing tonight and tomorrow afternoon and just getting this whole mess over with. There's almost a fifty-fifty shot of it coming during the Cardinals series (47.2%, to be exact); a 26.4% chance of it happening on the West Coast swing, which is when I originally thought it would happen; and an 0.6% chance of it happening it after their return from the West Coast.
By the way, current records for all teams are available at baseball-reference.com. The only team to have 10,000 wins so far are the Giants, with 10,150; the Cubs will most likely be next to reach that milestone, with 9,943. The Braves will be the next to cross the 10,000-loss line, but they're 320 short so it'll take a few years.
If you noticed that those are all National League teams, that's not a coincidence. The Phillies, Giants, Cubs, and Braves started play in 1883, 1883, 1876, and 1876 respectively; the eight original AL teams -- today's Orioles, Red Sox, White Sox, Indians, Tigers, Twins, Yankees, and A's -- all started in 1901, when that league was founded.)
The Phillies aren't the team with the lowest winning percentage, not by a long shot; they're .468 all-time. The Rangers, Rockies, and Padres are a bit worse at .467, .466, and .463; the Devil Rays are .398 all time. But they're all expansion teams, and expansion teams are historically bad the Phillies do have the worst winning percentage of the original sixteen teams. (The original NL is the Braves, Phillies, Cubs, Cardinals, Dodgers, Giants, Reds, and Pirates.) You can see online the standings of the the eight original AL teams and NL teams graphed since 1901. It won't surprise anyone to learn the Yankees are the best AL team in that time, and the Giants are only a bit less surprisingly the best NL team.