Yes, Obama. Not McCain. People who create these sites generally have a choice to make -- since nobody other than Obama and McCain has any reasonable chance of getting electoral votes, stating everything from the Obama point of view or from the McCain point of view has the same content -- but it seems that there's a leaning towards choosing Obama for this purpose in this corner of the blogosphere. (This is an entirely unscientific sample, though.)
Note that although Sam Wang says what he does isn't simulation, that's only because his method allows him to do all the possibilities at once. This is because he uses the magic of generating functions. This trick only works if you can make the simplifying assumption that winning in each state is independent of each other state. This is reasonable if you're trying to predict what would happen if the election were held today -- there's not any big reason for sampling error in different states to be correlated. But if you're trying to predict what will happen in the actual election, this assumption is very risky. It seems that the actual movement of voter opinions in different states should be correlated.
Here's the list:
- Stochastic Democracy (David Shor)
- Race to 270 (Ben Schak)
- Election-Projection.Net (If you want to do your own simulations, they have an interactive calculator.)
- FiveThirtyEight.com (Nate Silver)
- Princeton Election Consortium (Sam Wang)
- 270towin.com 2008 Election Simulator
This list is by no means complete.