20 April 2010

Ash clouds and probability

From the Daily Mail: New ash cloud could delay re-opening of London airports. We have this gem: "Critics said the agency used a scientific model based on 'probability' rather than fact to forecast the spread of the ash cloud." See the Telegraph as well.

What else are they supposed to do? The agency here -- the Met Office, which is the national weather service of the UK -- doesn't know what the ash cloud is going to do. If they waited to see what the cloud does, the planes would already be in the air. It would be too late.

3 comments:

Anna said...

Risk management is tough...

I can see where the airlines are coming from: they lost 1.5 billion pounds, when every single one of their flights is a risk (why else the security lecture before each one?) and the ash-related risk is so theoretical. It's not like if they would force passengers on board if allowed to fly, people would still make their own decisions.

JW said...

That has to be one of the best "not realizing what they are saying" quotes I have read in a long time!

Of course if they open airspace and there is a crash we would hear nonstop "why did they ignore the models?!"

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