## 13 July 2007

### ten thousand pennies

Philadelphia Fish & Company is running a promotion in which, once the Phillies lose their ten-thousandth game, anybody who brings in ten thousand pennies can get a dinner for ten.

This is from the Don Polec's World segment on WPVI's 6 PM newscast yesterday. (To see the actual segment, look at the menu under the "Action News on demand".) The guy who came up with the promotion, Kevin Meeker, says it comes from an ancient Greek tradition -- when the ancient Greeks had lost ten thousand men in battle, they had a feast of fish and it was believed to bring them good luck.

(To answer the obvious question -- you actually have to bring ten thousand pennies. You can't just show up with a \$100 bill. And they have to be rolled. He wants people to suffer.)

The Phillies are currently at 9999 losses. The probability of the Phillies' ten-thousandth loss tonight, which I originally looked at here and re-examined here and here? Just under 40%. The full distribution -- which is now nothing more than the distribution of the time until the team's next loss is as follows:

 Jul 13 v. Cardinals 0.394329 Jul 14 v. Cardinals 0.238834 Jul 15 v. Cardinals 0.144655 Jul 16 @ Dodgers 0.130046 Jul 17 @ Dodgers 0.053929 Jul 18 @ Dodgers 0.022364 Jul 19 @ Padres 0.009184 Jul 20 @ Padres 0.003861 Jul 21 @ Padres 0.001623 Jul 22 @ Padres 0.000682 Jul 24 v. Nationals 0.000174 Jul 25 v. Nationals 0.000113 Jul 26 v. Nationals 7.3e-05 Jul 27 v. Pirates 4.8e-05 Jul 28 v. Pirates 3.1e-05 Jul 29 v. Pirates 2e-05 Jul 30 @ Cubs 1.8e-05 Jul 31 @ Cubs 9e-06 Aug 01 @ Cubs 4e-06 Aug 02 @ Cubs 2e-06 Aug 03 @ Brewers 1e-06 Aug 04 @ Brewers 1e-06
And how much do ten thousand pennies weigh? Twenty-five kilograms, or about fifty-five pounds.