At this article: Fox Sports expects at least 1.5 teams to win the World Series this year.
No, I'm not making this up.
They give odds for fifteen Major League Baseball teams to win the World Series, ranging from the Marlins at 40 to 1 to the Angels at 5 to 2. I'll just give the top five teams here: Angels 5:2, Yankees 3:1, Cubs 7:2, Red Sox 4:1, Mets 8:1. So they figure that the Angels has probability 2/7 of winning the World Series, the Yankees 1/4, and so on.
Add up their probabilities for the top five teams: 2/7 + 1/4 + 2/9 + 1/5 + 1/9 = 449/420, which is greater than one. If you add up the probabilities for the fifteen teams they give probabilities for, you get about 1.506.
I'm not arguing with their ranking of the teams. (There might be things to argue with, but contrary to what you might come to believe in the next two months, or to what longtime readers might remember from last August and September, this isn't a baseball blog.) But a bookie that offered these odds would be broke pretty quickly.
Also, about the Phillies (to whom they give 16 to 1 odds to win at all), we're told that "Odds say they can't mash their way in two years in a row." Okay, it may be true that they can't rely on just their offense. But the fact that they did it last year really has no bearing on whether they can do it this year. If anything, the fact that they did make the playoffs last year is evidence that their offense is enough.